Rama Bijapurkar: Unprepared for our consumption
Rama Bijapurkar/January 16, 2010
We certainly are not prepared for our consumer economy. Macro numbers tell us Consumer India is a mega consuming monster and a solid economic growth engine. But when we look at corporate results, industry stories or data on consumer behaviour, we set pretty modest parameters about what merits “wow!”. Perhaps as suppliers, we lag behind consumers in shrugging off the poverty effect. Perhaps we subliminally realise that such consumption growth without fixing the fundamentals is chaotic, and may one day go into heart seizure. More likely, at an intellectual level, we have not managed to wrap our arms and heads around the enormity of what the Consumer India story actually is: One billion people, at least 80 per cent of whom have steadily rising income; huge confidence based on their own upward mobility in the past decade; and a very keen desire to improve their quality of life. That’s why we lose our battle for dreams, fear investing to build scale; and that’s why in the broader consumer space, we have only a handful of companies which are of any size of consequence. China “gets it”. It doesn’t have as vibrant a consumption environment, so India’s consumers are definitely on its map. With scale, and some say innovative accounting, it has the right price-performance point in some categories, not all, and Indian mass consumption is lapping up “made-in-China to Indian design” chappals, saris, salwar kameez co-ordinates, agricultural sprayers, ganesha idols, watches and much more
For our consumption engine — and our consumption economy — to realise its potential, the supply side has to really understand how enormously large this can be, and in fact, already is. Benchmarks and ambitions should be based on the potential of the opportunity, not on past sales. The questions we need to ask are: How high is up? How many people have this need? At what price-performance point will they upgrade to better ways of fulfilling this need? From matkas to water coolers; from mosquito coils to transparent gels on the body; from belief in destiny to goal-based savings plans; from trains to planes and so on. Growth of consumption in Tier-2 cities or rural India should not surprise us. For a long time, they have been pockets of money in search of supply, sort of all dressed up with nowhere to go! Then came new kinds of supply and the market blossomed.
Growth in car purchase these last two quarters is not unexpected; for the upper-income people, confidence, incomes and wealth have returned to the way they were before the uncertainty. Four crore two wheeler owners and 40 crore-plus mobile owners are begging the question, “What more can we do for them to build on this?” If we observe the supply side in a more unorthodox way, we can see that we are a shortage economy already — see the crowds at every reasonably-priced place of consumption, whether it is the bhelpuriwala or the wait for the better known tarot card reader, airport check-in queues, etc. But at the same time we keep reminding ourselves that several of the high-end malls are going empty; that the Bandra-Worli sea link failed to meet its projected numbers (the Gurgaon story was the opposite); that housing inventory available in many cities is unabsorbed or that top line growth of big companies isn’t at 30 to 40 per cent year-on-year. However, the truth is that many of these failures of anticipated demand not happening actually lie in supply side miscalculations, either based on an unwillingness to accept that the creamy layer that all this is targeted at is not yet thick enough; or due to shoddy consumer behaviour analysis.
Let’s take a reality check here. Forget income statistics — consumption, like maternity is a certainty while income, like paternity, is a matter of inference. Chris Butell of IIMS Data defines the consuming class as the one with its own transport, entertainment and communication devices, and puts the number at 46 million households or 230 million people, a number far higher than the estimates of market sizes put out by global consulting firms. Durables penetration data by quintiles (NCAER) shows that only top quintile and a small part of the next quintiles have started their consumption journey. Our most popular market definition for consuming class of SEC A/B does not even cover the urban households in the top quintile. You have to add half the SEC C households to get that. However you look at it, the main event of our consumer story is yet to happen, and we are already running out of capacity and becoming a shortage economy. And if we get consumer acceptable price-performance right as some industries have, we can see the instant explosion in demand.
(The author is an independent market strategy consultant. This was the first of a monthly column)
courtsey:business standard.
Saturday, August 7, 2010
EVALUATION OF MANMOHAN SINGH AS AN ECONOMIST!!
In the five full budgets that Manmohan Singh presented, the country's finances showed only marginal improvement.
His first budget in July 1991 was pathbreaking where he did away with industrial licencing, liberalised trade policy and slashed expenditure in the backdrop of a foreign exchange crises forcing a devaluation of the rupee by 16 per cent and again by 6 per cent.
Singh boldly attempted to cut fertiliser subsidies where he encountered stiff political resistance. His axe fell on capital expenditure and on health and education.
But he had to roll back the fertiliser price hike, by restoring the subsidy. While the subsidy bill rose marginally, Singh managed to sharply cut fiscal deficit to 5.9 per cent for the year ended March 1992, largely on account of a 20 per cent rise in revenue receipts.
In the same year, he set up the Raja Chellaiah committee to carry forward the tax reforms he initiated and also the institution of the Narasimhan Committee to revamp the financial system.
The foreign direct investment regime was liberalised and the energy and power sectors were opened up.
The Foreign Investment Promotion Board too was set up to attract long-term capital into the country. For the stock markets, Singh gave legislative backing to the Securities and Exchange Board of India [ Images ].
Singh had the full backing of his Prime Minister P V Narasimha Rao to set the economy rolling again. Besides cutting expenditure, he also cut excise and customs duties and rationalised direct taxes.
He was systematially executing the job till he realised soon that there were limits beyond which the budget could not be used purely as an instrument of economic policy.
In his second budget, Singh carried forward his reform measures such as liberalising gold imports and also announced partial convertibility of the rupee on the current account.
Three tax rate slabs of 20 per cent (for income up to Rs 50,000), 30 per cent (upto Rs 100,000) and 40 per cent (over Rs 100,000) were introduced. Peak customs duty was cut to a maximum of 110 per cent and advalorem mode for excise adopted.
He also put import of raw materials and capital goods on the OGL with a small negative list. For the capital markets, he freed companies to fix the premium on their public issues.
While there was no significant increase in capital expenditure, the revenue expenditure had started rising with the result that the revenue deficit did not show any improvement in the second year at 2.6 per cent of the GDP.
But the economy had logged a growth rate of 5.1 per cent in 1992-93 with a marginal improvement in fiscal deficit to 5.7 per cent of the GDP.
In the next fiscal (1993-94), Singh set up the R N Malhotra Committee to suggest reforms in the insurance sector and also entrusted NIPFP with the task to prepare a framework for a value-added tax regime.
Peak customs duty was cut to 85 per cent. A host of tax holidays for power producing units, for new industries in several states, for STPI and for electronic hardware parks.
The next two years saw a healthy GDP growth of 7.3 per cent each, but not much progress on the fiscal front. In the five years, between 1991-92 and 1995-96, the fiscal deficit in absolute terms had risen by 66 per cent.
It stood at 5.4 per cent of the GDP for the year ended March 1996. The annual average inflation had for the first time charted the single digit course at 8.09 per cent compared to 10-11 per cent during the last four years.
COURTSEY:REDIFF
His first budget in July 1991 was pathbreaking where he did away with industrial licencing, liberalised trade policy and slashed expenditure in the backdrop of a foreign exchange crises forcing a devaluation of the rupee by 16 per cent and again by 6 per cent.
Singh boldly attempted to cut fertiliser subsidies where he encountered stiff political resistance. His axe fell on capital expenditure and on health and education.
But he had to roll back the fertiliser price hike, by restoring the subsidy. While the subsidy bill rose marginally, Singh managed to sharply cut fiscal deficit to 5.9 per cent for the year ended March 1992, largely on account of a 20 per cent rise in revenue receipts.
In the same year, he set up the Raja Chellaiah committee to carry forward the tax reforms he initiated and also the institution of the Narasimhan Committee to revamp the financial system.
The foreign direct investment regime was liberalised and the energy and power sectors were opened up.
The Foreign Investment Promotion Board too was set up to attract long-term capital into the country. For the stock markets, Singh gave legislative backing to the Securities and Exchange Board of India [ Images ].
Singh had the full backing of his Prime Minister P V Narasimha Rao to set the economy rolling again. Besides cutting expenditure, he also cut excise and customs duties and rationalised direct taxes.
He was systematially executing the job till he realised soon that there were limits beyond which the budget could not be used purely as an instrument of economic policy.
In his second budget, Singh carried forward his reform measures such as liberalising gold imports and also announced partial convertibility of the rupee on the current account.
Three tax rate slabs of 20 per cent (for income up to Rs 50,000), 30 per cent (upto Rs 100,000) and 40 per cent (over Rs 100,000) were introduced. Peak customs duty was cut to a maximum of 110 per cent and advalorem mode for excise adopted.
He also put import of raw materials and capital goods on the OGL with a small negative list. For the capital markets, he freed companies to fix the premium on their public issues.
While there was no significant increase in capital expenditure, the revenue expenditure had started rising with the result that the revenue deficit did not show any improvement in the second year at 2.6 per cent of the GDP.
But the economy had logged a growth rate of 5.1 per cent in 1992-93 with a marginal improvement in fiscal deficit to 5.7 per cent of the GDP.
In the next fiscal (1993-94), Singh set up the R N Malhotra Committee to suggest reforms in the insurance sector and also entrusted NIPFP with the task to prepare a framework for a value-added tax regime.
Peak customs duty was cut to 85 per cent. A host of tax holidays for power producing units, for new industries in several states, for STPI and for electronic hardware parks.
The next two years saw a healthy GDP growth of 7.3 per cent each, but not much progress on the fiscal front. In the five years, between 1991-92 and 1995-96, the fiscal deficit in absolute terms had risen by 66 per cent.
It stood at 5.4 per cent of the GDP for the year ended March 1996. The annual average inflation had for the first time charted the single digit course at 8.09 per cent compared to 10-11 per cent during the last four years.
COURTSEY:REDIFF
Friday, August 6, 2010
BUSINESS JUST NEEDS A BIG IDEA!!
(This article is inspired from BRAND EQUITY of TOI edition:04.08.2010)
Genuine Innovation indeed has a breakthrough quality.Today if we consider the example of Emami's Fair and Handsome they cover 80% of market share in mean fairness cream and already worth Rs.200 crore (as per ET reported till august'4th'2010) The Big Idea was when 30% of fairness cream users are men, why not one come up with fairness cream exclusively catering to men.And today the results are all visible emami certainly turned up this notion into practice and milk the idea into cash pile.
In present scenario it is all about institutionalising flashes of genius other than sticking to one brilliant idea od "once upon a time". it is indeed inevitable to develop & nuture a culture in the company so that their mindset of innovation get changed and every employee should ingrain and behave like a part of the innovation.
The pattern should be the eventual emergence of ideas from freeflowing minds, and then the purpose should be to channel and control those ideas in an effective manner.
The past few years have been evident about the critical light out of the blackwhich is INNOVATION.Many companies pondering over this strategic priorities.Revaluating their tools that help them navigate a new reality.
Companies across a world awash with technology and deconstructing Apple's sucess in innovation on all fronts; the company led buy steve jobs have turned into an exemplar of the creative organizations.
Innovation is an ability to commit anything new and different and to be actively involved in it(sleep with it breathe with it eat with it in precise live with it)making it a priority and graduating from abstract ambition.
If a company took "INNOVATION" as its principle strategy it should make its employee really feel it in thir life.It should run in the artries and veins like blood in the body of organization.Innovations if one would define will only say that something new, where as it is more than that it is an attitude, it is not theprocess that merely drives the innnovation,infact the secret recepie is involving customer insights,radical ideas,modification of already existing products or services on advanced levels and noticeable benefits that a customer wish for or willing to pay for.
TGIF(Tate Group Innovation Forum) works on the same principle where the mandate is simple that is to inspire employee to be more innovative and drive a cultural transformation within the group.Nano and Swatch their products are outcome of the same brilliant ideas.And the industry is expecting ample of action yet to take place.
Even godrej people have an offcial meeting once in the month for the same.
But have some one noticed that Innnovation is just likfe business ethics ..the topics which are much talked about but when it comes to the implementation part of it not very often management will like to go for the idea.This whole thing really need one more impotant element and in fact the most important i.e COURAGE
Creativity is now a days seem to be the currency for the forth coming future.Since it not only fetch growth for the company, it also make them more agile towards the future.
Mr.C.K.Prahlad an eminent management thinker in his book "BEST PRACTICES ONLY GET YOU SO FAR" have also took a stand where he urged the manager to seek for new mega opportunities rather than focusing on competition.He also advised to image the future, invent next practices, so that world could witness market leader.CHEERS for the same if businessmen in India realize the importance of his words.
-mrinal bhattacharya
Genuine Innovation indeed has a breakthrough quality.Today if we consider the example of Emami's Fair and Handsome they cover 80% of market share in mean fairness cream and already worth Rs.200 crore (as per ET reported till august'4th'2010) The Big Idea was when 30% of fairness cream users are men, why not one come up with fairness cream exclusively catering to men.And today the results are all visible emami certainly turned up this notion into practice and milk the idea into cash pile.
In present scenario it is all about institutionalising flashes of genius other than sticking to one brilliant idea od "once upon a time". it is indeed inevitable to develop & nuture a culture in the company so that their mindset of innovation get changed and every employee should ingrain and behave like a part of the innovation.
The pattern should be the eventual emergence of ideas from freeflowing minds, and then the purpose should be to channel and control those ideas in an effective manner.
The past few years have been evident about the critical light out of the blackwhich is INNOVATION.Many companies pondering over this strategic priorities.Revaluating their tools that help them navigate a new reality.
Companies across a world awash with technology and deconstructing Apple's sucess in innovation on all fronts; the company led buy steve jobs have turned into an exemplar of the creative organizations.
Innovation is an ability to commit anything new and different and to be actively involved in it(sleep with it breathe with it eat with it in precise live with it)making it a priority and graduating from abstract ambition.
If a company took "INNOVATION" as its principle strategy it should make its employee really feel it in thir life.It should run in the artries and veins like blood in the body of organization.Innovations if one would define will only say that something new, where as it is more than that it is an attitude, it is not theprocess that merely drives the innnovation,infact the secret recepie is involving customer insights,radical ideas,modification of already existing products or services on advanced levels and noticeable benefits that a customer wish for or willing to pay for.
TGIF(Tate Group Innovation Forum) works on the same principle where the mandate is simple that is to inspire employee to be more innovative and drive a cultural transformation within the group.Nano and Swatch their products are outcome of the same brilliant ideas.And the industry is expecting ample of action yet to take place.
Even godrej people have an offcial meeting once in the month for the same.
But have some one noticed that Innnovation is just likfe business ethics ..the topics which are much talked about but when it comes to the implementation part of it not very often management will like to go for the idea.This whole thing really need one more impotant element and in fact the most important i.e COURAGE
Creativity is now a days seem to be the currency for the forth coming future.Since it not only fetch growth for the company, it also make them more agile towards the future.
Mr.C.K.Prahlad an eminent management thinker in his book "BEST PRACTICES ONLY GET YOU SO FAR" have also took a stand where he urged the manager to seek for new mega opportunities rather than focusing on competition.He also advised to image the future, invent next practices, so that world could witness market leader.CHEERS for the same if businessmen in India realize the importance of his words.
-mrinal bhattacharya
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